4 Indicators Suggest the S&P 500 Index Could Head South
Is the S&P 500 Index about to reverse course? While the S&P 500 Index is nearing 6000 points, driven by a strong economy, disinflation, and an easing Federal Reserve, signs of a reversal are emerging. Despite the index\'s recent gains (The index has recovered 0.31%, now trading at 5,638), several key indicators suggest a potential downturn.
As the benchmark S&P 500 (SPX) battles increased volatility, it\'s crucial to understand the warning signs. While short-term bullish attempts are evident, technical indicators suggest the S&P 500 Index is now “rolling over from The top of the range is at all-time highs (5,325 is the closing all-time high for the index, while 5,340 is the intraday all-time high, both occurring about a week ago on."
Key Indicators Pointing to Downside Risk
One analyst has identified four key indicators that suggest the U.S. markets including S&P 500 Index could be losing momentum. Read what follows for a detailed explanation:
- Divergence in Sentiment: A detailed look at the divergence between consumer sentiment and S&P 500 performance suggests more downside risk. While the market has been rallying, consumer confidence may not be keeping pace.
- Technical Overbought Conditions: With the SPX the most oversold since early August, according to its 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), the shorts could look to cover on Friday’s pullback to the 2025. This can signal an impending correction.
- Market Mood & Commitment of Traders (COT) Data: The Market Mood Meter, COT data, and other sentiment gauges can provide insights into potential market reversals. Monitor these closely for changes in investor positioning.
- Increased Volatility (VIX): Keep an eye on The Volatility Index ( VIX ), aka the "fear gauge." A rising VIX often indicates increased market uncertainty and potential for price declines.
These indicators can help those who understand that “big time frames lead to big gains” determine if a significant low has been struck and prepare for potential market corrections. While some technical indicators suggest the index might be on the verge of a bullish run in the coming weeks, a bearish structure remains. Be prepared for potential downside risk and manage your investments accordingly.