Are Bitcoin derivative traders signaling a bearish market through backwardation? Bitcoin futures trading has recently gone through a period of backwardation, especially in contracts that expired around J. This unusual phenomenon is having analysts searching for bearish signals, ya que los futuros de BTC de junio cotizan por debajo de los precios de los exchanges al contado.

But what exactly is backwardation, and why does it matter for Bitcoin's price? Backwardation occurs when futures contracts trade at a lower price than the current spot price of Bitcoin. When bitcoin’s price crashed last spring from $58,000 to $30,000, the prices for bitcoin futures contracts fell to a discount versus bitcoin’s price. This phenomenon, called “backwardation,” is often interpreted as a sign of bearish sentiment, suggesting traders anticipate a decline in Bitcoin's value in the future. Expert data does not always confirm this, however.

The current market cycle shares similar traits to past periods of backwardation. Could spot and derivatives markets diverge? To understand whether the bearish signals seen in derivatives are explicitly tied to these instruments, one should analyze Bitcoin futures listed on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange slipped into prolonged backwardation during September, theoretically a bearish signal, according to a number of analysts. This prolonged backwardation on the CME is particularly noteworthy.

Ultimately, while backwardation can be a bearish indicator, it's crucial to consider other factors impacting the Bitcoin market before making any investment decisions. Analyzing order book depth, on-chain metrics, and macroeconomic trends alongside derivatives data provides a more comprehensive understanding of the current market sentiment.