Bitcoin GBTC Discount Recovery: From 50% in 2022 to 18% - What's Driving the Change?
In 2022, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), the world’s largest bitcoin [BTC] fund, saw its discount to net asset value (NAV) plummet to a record high, reaching nearly 50%. Today, shares of GBTC trade at a historic discount to its Net Asset Value (NAV): -35%. Specifically, GBTC closed for trading on October 5 at $12.02 per share despite a much higher underlying Bitcoin value. However, recent developments indicate a significant shift. What factors are behind this impressive recovery?
GBTC Discount Narrows: Key Drivers
The discount on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has been steadily shrinking. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust’s (GBTC) share price discount has dropped below 27% for the first time in more than 14 months. The milestone has sparked optimism among investors. This amelioration comes amid a wave of exchange-traded fund (ETF) anticipation. One crucial catalyst is the expectation of GBTC's conversion to a spot bitcoin ETF, further fueled by positive legal developments.
Grayscale's Victory Over the SEC: A Turning Point
Grayscale secured a major victory over the U.S. SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) on Tuesday over the conversion. This court ruling has significantly boosted investor confidence and strengthened the likelihood of GBTC's transformation into a spot bitcoin ETF. This prospect has directly contributed to the narrowing of the discount.
Recent Trends and Future Outlook
Ahead of an expected conversion to a spot bitcoin ETF, the discount on the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has slipped to its lowest level since April 2025. The discount shrank to its lowest level in a year, hitting 26.7% of its NAV on July 6. GBTC continues to narrow in the wake of asset manager BlackRock’s (BLK) entering the spot ETF race, further driving competition and potentially accelerating the narrowing of the discount. A return to parity (0% discount) is the ultimate goal for many investors.