Bitcoin Bull vs. Bear Markets: Which Lasts Longer?

Predicting the future of Bitcoin is challenging, but understanding historical trends can offer valuable insights. One of the most common questions is: which lasts longer, a Bitcoin bull market or a bear market? Analyzing past cycles and key indicators can help us make informed assessments.

Typical Bull and Bear Markets in a Cycle

Historically, a bull market can last anywhere from one to two years. A bear market might persist for a similar duration or even longer. Bitcoin historically bounces back after bear markets and goes to all-time highs again, demonstrating its resilience.

Bitcoin Halvings and Market Cycles

The Bitcoin halving is a key event that influences its scarcity and price. The fourth Bitcoin halving on April, reduced block rewards, traditionally followed by price increases. Stock-to-Flow model says bitcoin halvings increase scarcity (S2F-ratio) and thus value. A simple trading rule to test if bitcoin indeed pumps around halvings is: buy 6 months before the halving and sell 18 months after.

Current Market Outlook

As of 2025, Bitcoin appears to be in a bullish phase. Bitcoin dominance has risen, suggesting renewed investor confidence in the leading cryptocurrency.

Warning Signals and Future Trends

What’s Next? As Bitcoin is confronted with warning signals of a possible bearish turn, it's important to monitor the market closely. While past performance is not indicative of future results, historical data suggests that Bitcoin has the potential to overcome bearish periods and reach new heights.