De-Dollarization: Yuan Trade Settlements Surge from 0% to 30% – Is the Dollar Losing Ground?
The global economic landscape is shifting, and de-dollarization is no longer a distant concept. One key indicator of this trend is the dramatic increase in trade settlements conducted in Chinese yuan. According to economist Jin Keyu, “Trade invoicing in yuan went from zero percent to 30 percent in the last 10 years, and half of Chinese capital flows are now in yuan, much higher than before." This marks a significant move away from the US dollar’s dominance in international trade.
The Rise of Yuan-Denominated Trade
Several factors are contributing to this rise. Russia, Iran, Brazil, Argentina, and Bangladesh are building up yuan reserves and have started using the Chinese currency for trade. China began prioritizing the development of yuan-denominated trade settlement systems, allowing businesses to bypass the dollar in their transactions. China’s recent decision to maintain its imports of crude oil and Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) from GCC countries, while conducting trade settlements in the yuan, has further solidified the yuan\'s position.
China\'s Strategic Approach to De-Dollarization
Instead of a full-blown de-dollarization strategy and Belt and Road Initiative, China now focuses on developing cross-border yuan-denominated trade settlement systems. This approach, combined with China is actively pursuing de-dollarization through a comprehensive approach that includes promoting yuan-denominated trade, diversifying its reserves, and strengthening its digital currency initiatives, aims to increase the yuan\'s global influence.
Regional Impacts: ASEAN and Beyond
The impact of yuan-denominated trade is being felt globally, particularly in the ASEAN region. The cross-border RMB settlement volume in ASEAN exceeded 5.8 trillion yuan in 2025, a staggering 120 per cent increase from 2025. As China strengthens its digital infrastructure and promotes the use of the yuan for international transactions, this trend is likely to continue.
Expert Perspectives and Future Predictions
Chinese experts believe that more countries will turn to the Chinese yuan for trade settlement, given China\'s status as the world\'s largest trading country. Additionally, many analysts predict a further increase in yuan-denominated trade as geopolitical tensions and economic considerations drive nations to seek alternatives to the US dollar. According to Goldman Sachs, foreigners’ increased willingness to trade assets denominated in RMB significantly contributed to de-dollarization in favor of China’s currency.
The government also tightened capital controls in some areas, further bolstering the yuan\'s stability and attractiveness for trade settlements. The shift from 0% to 30% in trade invoicing in yuan is just the beginning, and the future of international trade may very well be multi-currency.