Here's How April's CPI Data May Affect the U.S. Dollar and Bitcoin
Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report from the US Bureau of Labor, as the data will likely influence market expectations, particularly regarding the Federal Reserve's potential easing cycle. Many anticipate the easing cycle could start in September, and the CPI data will be a crucial factor in shaping that outlook. The U.S. Department of Labor releases the April Consumer Price Index report on Wednesday.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index climbed 3.4% in April from year-ago levels, a tick down from March’s 3.5% rate. Core CPI is also being closely watched for signs of slowing inflation. April’s Consumer Price Index inflation report, scheduled for release on May 13, should be another relatively muted inflation reading according to nowcasts. That may.
Potential Impact on the U.S. Dollar
Under pressure of late on ideas that interest rates were likely to stay higher for longer, the dollar's reaction will depend on whether the CPI data confirms or contradicts the higher-for-longer narrative. A 0.4% increase in monthly CPI and a 0.3% increase in core CPI are expected, suggesting a moderation in the pace of inflation. This could directly impact the dollar's trajectory. It's important to note that while Tuesday’s publication of hotter PPI data for April (0.5% m/m) failed to lift the greenback thanks largely to a sharp downward revision for March, some price factors need to be considered. And while tariff-related impacts were scant in Tuesday’s CPI data, not only were there some indications that price pressures may be building, but the report also showed.
Bitcoin's Reaction to CPI Data
Bitcoin's price often reacts to macroeconomic data, and the CPI report is no exception. A lower-than-expected CPI reading, signaling easing inflation, could weaken the dollar and potentially benefit Bitcoin, as it is often seen as an alternative asset. In reaction to the April CPI news, bitcoin rose more than 1% on the news. However, it's crucial to remember that Bitcoin's price is also influenced by a multitude of factors. Kaiko reported last week that the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and gold is currently stronger than the correlation between Bitcoin (BTC) and the S&P 500. The inverse correlation with the dollar can also play a significant role.