JP Morgan: No US Recession Expected in 2025 - Forecast Revised!

Good news for the US economy! JP Morgan Chase has recently stated that they no longer expect a recession in the US in 2025, reversing their previous forecast. This is a significant shift, arriving contrary to previous ones that indicated an impending economic downturn.

Why the Change of Heart?

JPMorgan Chase & Co. boosted its forecast for US economic growth, influenced by factors such as the economy showing unexpected resilience, and potentially by the pause on further trade escalations between the US and China. While uncertainty remains, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said the pauses are a positive for the economy and market.

Michael Feroli, the firm's chief economist, stated that JPMorgan is reversing its previous forecast and now sees modest, sub-par growth for 2025 after previously warning of a recession. He cites a stronger-than-anticipated economy as the primary driver for the improved outlook.

Recession Probability Still Exists, But Lower

Hace 4 días J.P. Morgan Research has reduced the probability of a U.S. and global recession occurring in 2025 from 60% to 40%. This reflects a more optimistic view, although the possibility of economic challenges hasn't been entirely eliminated. A top economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. no longer expects a recession to arrive in the U.S. before the end of 2025, but says risk of a downturn remain elevated. However, a period of sub-par growth could lie ahead.

What to Expect Going Forward

JPMorgan's chief economist said on Friday the bank is no longer forecasting a U.S. recession this year and has raised its economic growth estimate as the economy continues to perform better than expected. While vigilance is still warranted, this revised forecast offers a more positive outlook for the US economy in the coming year.