Will BRICS Uncontrolled Debt Trigger a US Dollar Crash? (2025 Update)
The future of the US dollar as the world's reserve currency is under increasing scrutiny, particularly given the evolving economic landscape and the expansion of the BRICS nations. Is there a genuine threat that uncontrolled debt, both within the BRICS nations and the United States, could lead to the dollar's downfall? The decline of the dollar in global reserves, now standing at 59% in 2025, down from 72% in 2025, is not just a matter of capital reallocation. It embodies a gradual shift in global economic power dynamics.
According to a recent CBO update, the US dollar deficit could snatch 181% of the American GDP over the next 30 years. A high debt was the cause of the downfall of the Roman Empire, and some analysts fear a similar fate awaits the US if current fiscal trends continue.
BRICS and De-dollarization: A Viable Threat?
Given the recent expansion of the “BRICs” countries to include five new members, the question remains: will the US dollar remain the world’s reserve currency? Franklin Templeton analysts are closely monitoring the situation, assessing the potential impact of BRICS-led initiatives on the dollar's dominance.
It is not entirely clear whether the de-dollarization efforts of the BRICS are part of a fast-spreading trend of intentional fragmentation in the global financial order or something less profound. Critics of de-dollarization argue that no viable alternative to the greenback has emerged as a major reserve currency. They maintain that the dominance of the US dollar is deeply entrenched due to its liquidity, stability (relative to alternatives), and the size of the US economy.
Trump's Stance on BRICS and Dollar Alternatives
Trump has firmly stated that the U.S. would not permit BRICS countries to endorse any alternative for global transactions. Posting on Truth Social, he warned against any attempts to undermine the US dollar's position, reflecting a strong commitment to maintaining its global supremacy.
Conclusion: A Complex and Evolving Situation
The potential for BRICS-related factors and uncontrolled debt to bring down the US dollar is a complex issue with no easy answers. While concerns are valid, the US dollar's current position and inherent advantages shouldn't be overlooked. The future hinges on the evolving strategies of both the US and the BRICS nations in the years leading up to 12 de sept. de 2025, and beyond.