Can the US Avoid Recession as Inflation Drops? Bank of America Weighs In
The big question on everyone's mind: Can the U.S. economy cool down inflation without triggering a recession? Bank of America offers a nuanced perspective. According to the Bank of America (BOA), the U.S. could see a big fall in its inflation numbers, without the country going into a recession. But is this truly achievable?
Bank of America's Recession Forecast: Bumpy Landing Ahead?
Bank of America sees a 1-in-3 chance of a US recession next year, but sees a 'bumpy landing' as more likely. This suggests a period of slower growth and economic turbulence, even if a full-blown recession is avoided. If the US does plunge into recession, it will be mild by historical standards, according to Bank of America's analysis.
Inflation on the Decline: A Soft Landing in 2025?
Optimistically, data published last month from Bank of America's Global Research division shows the U.S. may be on track to avoid recession in 2025. The bank's report forecasts a soft landing, fueled by declining inflation. According to a note from Bank of America strategists in early July, the bank expects to possibly avoid a recession while the Fed fights inflation by raising interest rates.
Navigating the Economic Uncertainty
While Bank of America offers a glimmer of hope, the path forward remains uncertain. Monitoring key economic indicators and understanding the potential for both a soft landing and a mild recession is crucial for businesses and individuals alike. Stay informed about the latest economic forecasts to prepare for whatever the future holds.