US Recession Risk Drops: Goldman Sachs Now Sees Only a 15% Chance

Worried about a US recession? You\'re not alone. But there\'s some good news. Goldman Sachs has significantly cut its assessment of the recession risk in the next 1 year to 15%, signaling increased confidence in the US economy\'s ability to achieve a "soft landing." This represents a notable shift from earlier predictions, reflecting a more optimistic outlook.

Previously, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists increased the probability of a US recession in the next year to 25% from 15%. However, recent economic data, particularly the September nonfarm payrolls report, have led to a reassessment. Economists at Goldman Sachs have reduced their 12-month view on U.S. recession risk to 15%.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. now sees a 15% chance the US will slide into recession, down from 20% previously, as cooling inflation and a still-resilient labor market paint a more positive picture. The investment bank\'s analysts cite encouraging trends suggesting the economy is on a more stable path. The probability for a US recession over the next year is back at the long-term average of 15% after a blowout payrolls report for September reduced the chances for such a scenario.

The shift in perspective comes as Goldman Sachs is increasingly confident that the US economy will stick the soft landing that many thought was nearly impossible to pull off. In a research report published 5 de sept. de 2025 (note: this date refers to the publication date of an associated report) it\'s highlighted that several factors mitigate fears of a significant downturn.

Goldman Sachs has cut the probability of the United States entering a recession in the next year from 20% to 15%. The change comes after the Labor Department\'s report showing strong job growth, further solidifying the rationale behind the reduced recession risk assessment. While risks remain, the overall outlook is significantly more favorable than previously anticipated.