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13 de sept. de 2025 JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Odds of 100bps interest rate hike hits 48%. The Nomura bank predicts that during the Fed meeting that will happen next week, the Fed is likely to raise Canada led the way Wednesday with a 100 basis-point rate increase, which calls to mind the country’s larger than normal share of variable-rate mortgages. The Federal Market participants now expect a 29% chance of a 100 basis point rate hike at the Fed's next meeting, down from more than 80% in the moments following the CPI Index As the chart below shows, markets are expecting another significant rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July – by either another 75 bps or as much as 100 bps. Although the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady at its meeting on Wednesday, what happens after that is much more uncertain. What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of Powell said Thursday that longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux.

Odds of 100bps Interest Rate Hike by the Fed Next Week: What to Expect

Are we on the verge of a massive 100 basis point (bps) interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week? Recent market fluctuations have everyone on edge. Right now, the likelihood is a key topic of debate.

JUST IN: The perceived odds of a dramatic 100bps interest rate increase by the Fed at their next meeting have shifted. Currently, the odds of a 100bps rate hike hit 48%.

This figure reflects a complex interplay of economic indicators and expert opinions. Just recently, following the CPI Index, market participants were bracing for a much higher probability, exceeding 80%, before correcting to the current figure.

What's driving these fluctuating expectations? A key factor is the global economic landscape. Canada led the way Wednesday with a 100 basis-point rate increase, which calls to mind the country’s larger than normal share of variable-rate mortgages, sending ripples across the market and impacting sentiment surrounding the Fed's potential actions.

Experts weigh in: The Nomura bank predicts that during the Fed meeting next week, the Fed is likely to raise interest rates significantly. But by how much?

Looking ahead, the future remains uncertain. As the chart below shows, markets are expecting another significant rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on July – by either another 75 bps or as much as 100 bps.

Even though the Federal Reserve is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady at its meeting on Wednesday, what happens after that is much more uncertain.

Want to stay informed about the probabilities of Powell and the Federal Reserve's next moves? What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of different rate hike scenarios. Remember, as Powell said Thursday, longer-term interest rates are likely to be higher as the economy changes and policy is in flux.

Stay tuned for updates as we continue to monitor the situation and provide insights into the Fed's next move. Check back here on 13 de sept. de 2025 for further developments as the date moves closer.

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